As ASEAN embarks on its journey towards 2045 with the launch of the ASEAN 2045: Our Shared Future and its Strategic Plans, it is worth reflecting on the words of Vincent Van Gogh: “Great things are done by a series of small things brought together.” This sentiment aptly captures ASEAN’s approach, where decades of steady, collective progress have laid the robust foundation to establish an ASEAN Community.
The aspiration to march as one Community for ASEAN is not new. Ten years ago, Leaders across ASEAN set a strategic course for the next phase of ASEAN’s economic integration agenda: an integrated, resilient, and inclusive ASEAN economy that drives sustainable growth, fuels innovation, and strengthens the region’s global economic standing.
The ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) Blueprint 2025, adopted alongside the ASEAN Political-Security Community (APSC) and ASEAN Socio- Cultural Community (ASCC) Blueprints 2025 during the 27th ASEAN Summit in 2015, served as a crucial instrument for this ambition.
Groundwork for growth: A decade of AEC Blueprint 2025
The results of this integration are truly remarkable, with tangible gains visible in ASEAN’s economic indicators, particularly in trade and investment. Between 2015 and 2024, ASEAN’s gross domestic product (GDP) soared from 2.5 trillion to 3.9 trillion US dollars, reflecting an impressive average annual growth rate of 5.0 per cent. Total trade also climbed from 2.3 trillion US dollars in 2015 to 3.8 trillion US dollars in 2024 (ASEANStats, 2025a), while Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) nearly doubled from 115.4 billion US dollars in 2015 to 226.0 billion US dollars in 2024 (ASEANStats, 2025b).
Even services trade also reached a record 1.3 trillion US dollars, underscoring competitiveness in digital services, logistics, finance, and tourism (ASEANStats, 2025c).
While global trends contributed to these outcomes, and domestic policies in individual ASEAN Member States played a significant role, evidence suggests that ASEAN’s collective actions, particularly those under the AEC Blueprint 2025, were decisive drivers. Strategic agreements and initiatives outlined in the Blueprint are estimated to have contributed to a 5 per cent uplift in GDP, equivalent to 1.1 trillion US dollars in additional output (Boston Consulting Group, 2025).These coordinated efforts also accounted for an 11 per cent or roughly 3.3 trillion US dollars in added trade value and an 8 per cent increase in investment over the past decade. Notably, ASEAN achieved these gains even as global FDI flows declined, signalling robust investor confidence in the region’s integrated market and the effectiveness of its integration agenda (Boston Consulting Group, 2025).
The benefits of ASEAN’s economic integration extend well beyond headline figures. At the enterprise level, AEC’s initiatives have bolstered productivity, resulting in 340 US dollars in additional output per worker. Employment rose by 1 per cent, creating 4 million new jobs, while wages increased by 5 per cent, adding an average of 16 US dollars per month to workers’ income. Female workforce participation reached 66 per cent, among the highest in emerging economies (Boston Consulting Group, 2025).
For the business community, the Blueprint’s focus on trade facilitation and regulatory reform has created a more predictable and efficient environment for cross-border trade. Initiatives such as the ASEAN Single Window, the ASEAN Customs Transit System, and the Harmonised Tariff Nomenclature have collectively enabled faster, cheaper, and more predictable movement of goods across the region. For example, customs clearance times have been reduced from 14 days to just 3, resulting in significantly lower costs and faster market access. One regional e-commerce firm reported a 25 per cent increase in cross-border sales. At the same time, other companies cited cost savings of up to 40 per cent due to the elimination of repetitive procedures.
The elimination of tariffs on 98 per cent of goods under ATIGA, along with greater Free Trade Agreement utilisation, also improved competitiveness for regional producers and exporters. Cumulatively, these initiatives are estimated to have driven a 540 billion US dollar uplift in intra-ASEAN trade and an additional 1.4 trillion US dollars in extra- ASEAN trade, particularly with Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) partners and other key external markets.
ASEAN’s progress is also exemplified by its commitment to digital transformation, which has rapidly accelerated over the past decade. With interconnected digital payment, booming e-commerce platforms, increased mobile connectivity, and its leading role in innovation and global tech supply chains, the region is set to unleash a digital economy worth 2 trillion US dollars by 2030 (Boston Consulting Group, 2023). This ambitious goal will be underpinned by the ASEAN Digital Economy Framework Agreement (DEFA), a meticulously negotiated framework designed to harmonise digital regulations. Equally impressive is the current focus on establishing a region-wide unique business identification number (UBIN). This initiative is expected to foster much-needed trust and ensure interoperability, vital for scaling up cross-border digital transactions.
Another hallmark of ASEAN’s recent success is its thriving tourism industry. With sustained high-quality standards across its iconic destinations, ASEAN continues to attract visitors from around the world. Despite a sharp drop to 2.9 million tourist arrivals in 2021, ASEAN swiftly adapted. Enhanced transport integration and widespread adoption of digital payments have encouraged tourists to explore beyond single borders, turning regional travel into a seamless experience. These coordinated efforts fuelled a dramatic rebound, with tourist arrivals soaring more than 126 million last year, underscoring ASEAN’s enduring appeal and adaptability.
Despite these impressive achievements, significant challenges and opportunities remain. One of the most pressing is the need to embed sustainability more deeply into ASEAN’s economic growth model. Over the past decade, the region has seen increased carbon intensity but only marginal growth in the share of renewable energy. These trends underscore the urgency of integrating sustainable principles into ASEAN’s forward-looking strategies, as outlined in the ASEAN Strategy for Carbon Neutrality, the Framework for Circular Economy for the ASEAN Economic Community, and the ASEAN Blue Economy Framework.
Navigating uncertainties with ASEAN 2045: Our Shared Future and AEC Strategic Plan 2026-2030
Looking back, ASEAN’s achievements under the current Blueprint have laid robust foundations for the region’s continued rise on the global stage. These successes provide not only a cause for celebration but also a springboard for even greater ambitions. The recent adoption of the ASEAN 2045: Our Shared Future and its Strategic Plans at the 46th ASEAN Summit in May 2025 reflects this forward-looking spirit, setting out a clear agenda for building a resilient, innovative, dynamic, and people-centred community by 2045.
Central to this vision is the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) Strategic Plan 2026-2030, which is designed to address both the opportunities and challenges that lie ahead. Recognising the region’s evolving economic and social landscape, the Plan goes beyond deepening regional integration. It also focuses on advancing regional resilience across crucial areas such as supply chains, food security, energy stability, and its future-ready workforces, ensuring ASEAN remains adaptable and competitive in a rapidly changing world.
As ASEAN moves forward, it is essential to build on the momentum of past achievements while remaining vigilant to emerging gaps and challenges. The commitment to continuous improvement and inclusive progress will be key to shaping a more robust and sustainable AEC, one that delivers lasting benefits to businesses and communities across the region and secures ASEAN’s place as a leading force in the global economy.
References:
ASEANstats. (2025a). ASEAN gross domestic product (GDP) annual & total trade: ASEANstats data portal. https://data.aseanstats.org/.
ASEANstats. (2025b). ASEAN foreign direct investment (FDI): ASEANstats data portal. https:// data.aseanstats.org/.
ASEANstats (2025c) ASEAN trade in services: ASEANstats data portal. https://data.aseanstats. org/.
Boston Consulting Group. (2025). ASEAN Economic Strategic Plan Review on Impact Realisation (ASPIRE). Jakarta, Indonesia.
Boston Consulting Group. (2023) Study on the ASEAN Digital Economy Framework Agreement (DEFA). https://asean.org/wp-content/ uploads/2023/10/ASEAN-Digital-Economy- Framework-Agreement-Public-Summary_Final-published-version-1.pdf
